If you have been casually ingesting the news within the last month then you’ve probably had your fill of GOP presidential primary talk – especially as it relates to Iowa. Well, I have good news for you: the Iowa part ends tonight.
I’m not an analyst but I know of a few good ones, and my preferred source is Nate Silver:
Our forecast model, which combines the Public Policy Polling survey with other recent polls of the state, also shows an effective three-way tie, although it has Mr. Romney ahead by the slimmest of margins. The model projects Mr. Romney to receive 21.0 percent of the vote, followed by Mr. Paul at 20.6 percent and Mr. Santorum — whose numbers have been on the rise — at 19.3 percent.
And here is the now updated projections from Silver:
Keep in mind that I’m an amateur when it comes to the political minutiae of Iowa caucus, but the conventional wisdom last year was that Mitt Romney was not going to be competitive in Iowa. So while the headlines from the weekend up until today primarily concentrated on a Rick Santorum surge – and to a slightly lesser extent Ron Paul – I’m wondering where the coverage is for a possible Romney win. Remember, four years ago he poured money into Iowa and lost handily to a folksy Mike Huckabee, and then lost New Hampshire by 5 percentage points to a resurgent John Mccain. So expectations were fairly low going heading into this process. If Romney really is the inevitable nominee, what does an Iowa win mean for him?